Belmont Stakes 2026: Renegade vs Golden Tempo at Saratoga — Everything You Need to Know

By Emma Davis · June 6, 2026

The 2026 Belmont Stakes goes off today, June 6, at Saratoga Race Course — not Belmont Park, which is still under renovation. A compact 9-horse field will contest 1.25 miles for a $2 million purse. Renegade is the 2-1 morning-line favorite, but Kentucky Derby champion Golden Tempo lurks at 9-2. Post time is 7:04 PM ET.

Why Is Renegade the Horse to Beat?

I'll be honest — Renegade scares me. This horse has that rare combination of tactical speed and raw talent that makes him dangerous at any distance. At 2-1, he's the shortest-priced Belmont favorite in years, and frankly, I think the odds might still be generous.

What makes Renegade special is his versatility. He can sit just off the pace, stalk from mid-pack, or even close from behind if the pace sets up that way. His connections have managed his campaign brilliantly, keeping him fresh for this spot. In a 9-horse field with limited pace pressure, he can dictate terms.

That said, I've been burned by heavy favorites before. The Belmont has a way of humbling you, and 2-1 doesn't leave much margin for error if something goes wrong at the start.

Can Golden Tempo Complete the Triple Crown Story?

Golden Tempo stunned everyone at the Kentucky Derby, closing from last to first at 23-1 odds. Now at 9-2 in the Belmont, the question is whether that Derby magic can translate to Saratoga.

Here's my concern: Golden Tempo needs chaos. He needs a hot pace, traffic in the stretch, and tired horses to pick off. In a 9-horse field at 1.25 miles — shorter than the Derby's 1.25 miles — there's less room for the kind of deep closing run we saw at Churchill Downs. The pace scenario might not cooperate.

But I can't ignore what I saw in the Derby. That final quarter in :23.9 was otherworldly. If Golden Tempo can reproduce even 90% of that effort, he's live at a very playable price. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has proven she knows this horse, and I wouldn't bet against her conviction.

Who Else Can Win This Race?

Don't sleep on these contenders:

Emerging Market at 6-1 is the horse I keep coming back to. He beat Golden Tempo in the Louisiana Derby — that's a fact people seem to have forgotten. He's a grinder who doesn't need a specific pace setup. If Renegade and Golden Tempo are watching each other, Emerging Market could steal this on pure determination.

Chief Wallabee at 3-1 is the horse that connections will tell you "loves Saratoga." And honestly, I believe them. There's something about the Saratoga surface that benefits certain running styles. At 3-1, he's probably the safest horse in exacta boxes.

The Saratoga Factor: Why Venue Matters

This isn't your grandfather's Belmont. The traditional 1.5-mile "Test of the Champion" at Belmont Park is gone — at least for now. Instead, we get a 1.25-mile race at Saratoga, which fundamentally changes the strategic calculus.

The shorter distance means stamina is less of a deciding factor. Speed and tactical positioning matter more. I watched replays of recent Saratoga stakes races to prepare for this piece, and one pattern jumped out: inside speed tends to hold up better here than at the old Belmont Park. The tighter turns and shorter stretch reward horses who can save ground.

If you're handicapping this, think about who's drawn inside and who's tactical enough to avoid wide trips. In a 9-horse field, the break and first turn positioning could decide the race.

My Pick and How I'm Playing It

I'm going to give you a straight answer: I think Renegade wins, but I'm not betting him at 2-1. The value isn't there.

My play is Emerging Market at 6-1 to win, keyed in exactas with Renegade and Chief Wallabee. If Emerging Market can sit third or fourth early and kick clear in the stretch, he's dangerous enough to beat this field. And at 6-1, you're getting paid for the risk.

Golden Tempo at 9-2 is my sentimental pick. I'd love to see the Derby winner validate that performance. But sentimentality doesn't pay the bills in horse racing — the pace setup has to cooperate, and I'm not confident it will in a field this small.